What is the current probability for "Villarreal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Villarreal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9165.6% and 729.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Villarreal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Villarreal wins by over 1.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Villarreal wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 22/23¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,132.57·OI $2,359.97·Closes May 7, 2026·14d remaining

KXLALIGASPREAD-26APR23OVIVIL-VIL1

7-day price25 snapshots · 12 regime

23¢22¢ current

Apr 219¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

If Villarreal wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Oviedo vs Villarreal professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9165.6%

IY (No) 729.2%

Adj IY 8749%

CRI 4

RV 2257%

VR 1.61

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9165.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	729.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8749%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2257%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:31:01 PM

Depth change (1h) +0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:38:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLALIGASPREAD-26APR23OVIVIL-VIL1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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