Will Ice Spice attend The Met Gala 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Ice Spice attend The Met Gala 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 49 percentage points over seven days from 57¢ to 29¢ with realized volatility of 3,928%, suggesting either a significant negative news catalyst or speculative capitulation.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 49 percentage points over seven days from 57¢ to 29¢ with realized volatility of 3,928%, suggesting either a significant negative news catalyst or speculative capitulation. The 345.6% implied yield on Yes contracts is extraordinarily high relative to the modest $5,012 open interest and $2,291 daily volume, indicating thin liquidity and potential mispricing in a market with 259 days to expiry. The 14.87 vol ratio and 1.2 info arrivals per hour suggest elevated uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index indicate no imminent resolution pressure.
Resolution rules
If Ice Spice attends The Met Gala 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMETGALA-ICE yes 100