Will Bernie Sanders endorse Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026?

33¢

Bid/Ask 32/33¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $199·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JSTR

7-day price10 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Sanders' endorsement of Stratton at just 33%, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where a Yes resolution offers 391% implied yield versus 87% for No—suggesting either strong conviction among No backers or limited liquidity constraining the Yes side. With only $199 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a tight 1¢ spread, this is an illiquid niche market where the extreme Yes yield may reflect pricing inefficiency rather than genuine probability assessment. The 4-point price rise over seven days (28¢ to 32¢) hints at modest recent momentum, but the 198-day timeframe and low activity make this difficult to trade meaningfully.

Resolution rules

If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 391.0%

IY (No) 86.6%

Adj IY 195%

CRI 2

Overround 3.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	391.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	86.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	195%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:14:52 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-JSTR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →