What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 647.6% and 57.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 567% and a dramatic 7-day price collapse from 48¢ to 27¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival regarding Houston's 2026 playoff prospects.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 24/27¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,460·OI $11,579.45·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-HOU

7-day price475 snapshots · 11 regime

55¢24¢ current

Apr 823¢Apr 26

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 567% and a dramatic 7-day price collapse from 48¢ to 27¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival regarding Houston's 2026 playoff prospects. The 503.6% implied yield on Yes positions is exceptionally high relative to the 196-day timeframe, indicating either deep mispricing or substantial tail risk that the market is pricing in. With only $58 in 24-hour volume against $9,024.96 open interest and a 7¢ spread, liquidity is thin despite meaningful open positions, creating potential execution challenges for larger trades.

Resolution rules

If Houston is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 647.6%

IY (No) 57.8%

Adj IY 563%

CRI 3

RV 484%

VR 1.98

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	647.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	57.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	563%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	484%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.98	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:40:53 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-HOU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →