Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the aggregate expected likelihood that one of the five listed MLB teams will qualify for the 2026 playoffs. At 94%, it indicates high certainty that at least one of these franchises will secure a postseason spot, though the specific winner remains uncertain across the contracts. The current season record, remaining games, and divisional standings drive this assessment. Teams with higher contract prices (Atlanta at 91¢, Cleveland at 39¢) are viewed as more likely playoff qualifiers, while lower-priced teams reflect increased competitive barriers. The primary catalyst determining outcomes will be regular-season performance through the end of October 2026, when the playoff field is finalized. Weather, injuries, and mid-season trades could materially shift individual team probabilities, though the aggregate 94% reflects confidence that the market's expectations of playoff qualification remain stable across this cohort.

• ›Win-loss record and remaining schedule gap between each team and the playoff cutline as of early May 2026
• ›Trading deadline activity (late July/early August) and whether teams add or subtract playoff-contending talent
• ›Injury status of key roster players, particularly starting pitchers and offensive core contributors
• ›Historical playoff qualification rates for teams at similar win-percentage levels with equivalent games remaining
• ›Head-to-head competitive strength within divisions and wildcard positioning relative to other MLB conferences

What moved the line

• Jun 21Atlanta↑12pp84→96¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20San Diego↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 15Chicago WS↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17San Diego↓10pp32→22¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 15St. Louis↓9pp43→34¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 2d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 3d
• Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 3d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 3d
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 3d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds