Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the leading contract's assessment that a specific team will qualify for the Major League Baseball playoffs in 2026, currently priced at 90 cents. The high probability suggests either a commanding division position or strong remaining schedule relative to competitors. Movement in this market would depend on actual win-loss records over the remainder of the regular season, as teams compete for limited playoff spots through direct standings races and wild-card positions. The primary catalyst driving resolution is the MLB regular season's conclusion on October 4, 2026, when final standings determine which teams clinch playoff berths. Between now and then, head-to-head matchups against division rivals, performance against teams in similar win totals, and injury developments to key players will incrementally shift win probabilities and thus playoff qualification odds.

• ›Current standings position and games remaining relative to other contenders in the same division or wild-card tier as of July 2, 2026
• ›Strength of schedule for the leading team versus direct competitors through the regular season's end
• ›Historical correlation between early-season performance (after 81+ games played) and final playoff qualification outcomes
• ›Trade deadline activity and roster changes that materially alter team composition before the July 31 deadline
• ›Injury status of All-Star or core roster players affecting win probability over the final three months

What moved the line

• Aug 10Detroit↑11pp23→34¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Chicago WS↓11pp68→57¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Philadelphia↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4Texas↓10pp43→33¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 10Chicago WS↑9pp57→66¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds