What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 647.6% and 57.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This Kansas City playoff qualifier contract has experienced significant recent weakness, declining 9 cents over seven days to 40¢, though the 1¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity at current levels.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 23/25¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $113.38·OI $9,134.57·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-KC

7-day price507 snapshots · 2 regime

52¢23¢ current

Apr 823¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This Kansas City playoff qualifier contract has experienced significant recent weakness, declining 9 cents over seven days to 40¢, though the 1¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity at current levels. The 287% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but comes with substantial risk, as evidenced by the 393% realized volatility and 2.25 vol ratio, indicating this market has historically experienced sharp swings. With 199 days to expiration and relatively modest $153 daily volume against $8.6k open interest, traders should be cautious about position sizing, as the thin liquidity could amplify slippage during larger trades.

Resolution rules

If Kansas City is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 647.6%

IY (No) 57.8%

Adj IY 648%

CRI 3

RV 463%

VR 1.86

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	647.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	57.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	648%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	463%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:39:51 PM

Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-KC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →