What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10.2% and 3675.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market is pricing Los Angeles D's playoff qualification at an extremely high 96% probability with a thin 1¢ spread, but the asymmetric implied yields (9.7% for Yes vs.

██████████████████████████████████████░░

96¢

Bid/Ask 96/97¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $16,297·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-LAD

7-day price25 snapshots · 3 regime

96¢96¢ current

Apr 894¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This market is pricing Los Angeles D's playoff qualification at an extremely high 96% probability with a thin 1¢ spread, but the asymmetric implied yields (9.7% for Yes vs. 3492% for No) reveal severe liquidity constraints—the $16,287 open interest and modest $349.38 daily volume suggest minimal depth on the No side. The 199-day timeframe to November 2026 provides substantial runway for repricing, yet the neutral regime and modest 1¢ price movement over seven days indicate the market has largely settled on this outcome, though the Cliff Risk Index of 19 warrants caution around late-season volatility.

Resolution rules

If Los Angeles D is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10.2%

IY (No) 3675.5%

Adj IY 3676%

CRI 19

RV 62%

VR 1.94

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3675.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3676%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	62%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.94	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:41:48 PM

Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-LAD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →