What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 315.6% and 118.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market on New York Mets playoff qualification has experienced significant bearish pressure, dropping 16 cents over seven days to 56¢, though the 3¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity at current levels.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 32/40¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $1,861.54·OI $13,751.96·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-NYM

7-day price498 snapshots · 75 regime

72¢38¢ current

Apr 1030¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This market on New York Mets playoff qualification has experienced significant bearish pressure, dropping 16 cents over seven days to 56¢, though the 3¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity at current levels. The stark divergence between Yes yield (144.4%) and No yield (233.9%) indicates the market is pricing in substantial downside risk, with realized volatility of 271% reflecting considerable uncertainty around the Mets' prospects through November 2026. With only $194.2 in daily volume against $7,107.65 open interest and 199 days to expiration, the market appears relatively illiquid for its size, suggesting caution for larger position entries.

Resolution rules

If New York M is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 315.6%

IY (No) 118.6%

Adj IY 299%

CRI 2

RV 287%

VR 1.65

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	315.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	118.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	299%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	287%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.65	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:43:27 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-NYM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →