What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 35¢ (35% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 392.8% and 95.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (329% realized vol) with a sharp 14-cent decline over seven days, suggesting significant negative information flow regarding Philadelphia's 2026 playoff prospects.

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35¢

Bid/Ask 33/41¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $100·OI $3,772.27·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-PHI

7-day price240 snapshots · 7 regime

67¢34¢ current

Apr 932¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme volatility (329% realized vol) with a sharp 14-cent decline over seven days, suggesting significant negative information flow regarding Philadelphia's 2026 playoff prospects. The implied yields are exceptionally high at 170-199%, reflecting substantial uncertainty and illiquidity ($2,281 open interest, $611 daily volume), though the tight 1-cent spread indicates active market-making. With 199 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears fairly priced at 53 cents, but the elevated info arrival rate (1.5/hour) and realized volatility warrant caution for position sizing given the binary nature of playoff qualification.

Resolution rules

If Philadelphia is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 392.8%

IY (No) 95.3%

Adj IY 393%

CRI 2

RV 328%

VR 1.68

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	392.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	95.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	393%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	328%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.68	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:43:27 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-PHI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →