What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 69¢ (69% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 99.7% and 375.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. The market has surged 27% over seven days to 68¢, reflecting growing confidence in Seattle's playoff qualification odds, though the extremely asymmetric yield structure (94.7% for Yes vs.

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69¢

Bid/Ask 67/69¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $261·OI $6,694·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SEA

7-day price387 snapshots · 14 regime

68¢66¢ current

Apr 852¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

The market has surged 27% over seven days to 68¢, reflecting growing confidence in Seattle's playoff qualification odds, though the extremely asymmetric yield structure (94.7% for Yes vs. 356.8% for No) suggests the No side is severely underpriced relative to risk. With only $236 in 24-hour volume against $6,530 open interest and a 2¢ spread, liquidity is thin for a market with 199 days to expiry, creating potential slippage concerns for larger positions. The 205% realized volatility and 2.05 vol ratio indicate significant price swings despite the neutral regime, warranting caution around the approaching 2026 MLB season when information arrival accelerates.

Resolution rules

If Seattle is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 99.7%

IY (No) 375.5%

Adj IY 376%

CRI 2

RV 187%

VR 1.88

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	99.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	375.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	376%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	187%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:40:32 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 10:38:47 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SEA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →