Will Cincinnati win at least 65 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Cincinnati win at least 65 games this season?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market is pricing Cincinnati's 65-win threshold at an extremely bullish 95¢, implying a 95% probability, yet the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $49 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing Cincinnati's 65-win threshold at an extremely bullish 95¢, implying a 95% probability, yet the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $49 open interest suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The asymmetric 934% implied yield on the No side combined with a 6.05 volatility ratio and 369% realized volatility indicates extreme uncertainty beneath the surface price, with the market likely reflecting stale information rather than genuine conviction. The sharp 8¢ rally over seven days (76¢ to 84¢) warrants skepticism—this could signal either new bullish data or thin-market noise given the negligible trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Cincinnati has 65+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-CIN-26-T65 yes 100