Will New York Y win at least 95 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will New York Y win at least 95 games this season?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The Yes side is pricing in only a 33% chance of New York Y reaching 95 wins, down sharply from 40¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent negative sentiment or performance data has shifted expectations.
Analysis
The Yes side is pricing in only a 33% chance of New York Y reaching 95 wins, down sharply from 40¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent negative sentiment or performance data has shifted expectations. The extreme 481% implied yield on the Yes contract reflects the low price point, but this is paired with concerning liquidity metrics—just $63 in 24-hour volume and an 11¢ spread on a $2,738 open interest—making this a thin market prone to slippage. The 1472% realized volatility and 4.96 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced wild price swings, likely driven by sparse trading rather than fundamental information flow, so the current 33¢ price should be treated cautiously given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If New York Y has 95+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-NYY-26-T95 yes 100