Will Texas win at least 90 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Texas win at least 90 games this season?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing from 38¢ to 15¢ over seven days before recovering to 40¢, suggesting either significant new information about Texas's roster or erratic pricing in a thin market with only $23 in daily volume.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing from 38¢ to 15¢ over seven days before recovering to 40¢, suggesting either significant new information about Texas's roster or erratic pricing in a thin market with only $23 in daily volume. The 1008% implied yield on Yes contracts is extraordinarily high and likely reflects illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity, given the $2,047 open interest and 23¢ spread. With 205 days until expiry and a realized volatility of 2522%, this market appears unstable and potentially mispriced, warranting caution before taking large positions.
Resolution rules
If Texas has 90+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-TEX-26-T90 yes 100