Will Texas win at least 95 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Texas win at least 95 games this season?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The Yes position shows an extreme 541.5% implied yield on a 25¢ price with minimal $102 open interest and just $1 daily volume, suggesting this is a highly illiquid micro-market where the pricing may not reflect genuine probability estimates.
Analysis
The Yes position shows an extreme 541.5% implied yield on a 25¢ price with minimal $102 open interest and just $1 daily volume, suggesting this is a highly illiquid micro-market where the pricing may not reflect genuine probability estimates. The realized volatility of 49,429% and dramatic 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 25¢ indicate severe price instability typical of thin markets, while the 16.61 vol ratio and 3 Cliff Risk Index flag potential for sharp reversals as the November 2026 expiration approaches over 200 days out. With a 26¢ spread and neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient liquidity and information flow (0.3/h) to reliably predict whether Texas achieves 95+ wins.
Resolution rules
If Texas has 95+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-TEX-26-T95 yes 100