Cincinnati vs New York Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Cincinnati vs New York Winner?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 10¢ spread and extreme implied yields (6142.7% on Yes, 488.7% on No), suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a liquidity void.
Analysis
This market shows severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 10¢ spread and extreme implied yields (6142.7% on Yes, 488.7% on No), suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a liquidity void. The 21-day expiration window is tight for an MLS match originally scheduled for April 25, 2026, creating potential resolution timing ambiguity. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal trading activity, making this an unreliable venue for actual probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If New York wins the Cincinnati vs New York professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25CINNYRB-NYRB yes 100