What is the current probability for "Will New York win 5+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 7, 2026. 73 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will New York win 5+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 499.8% and 499.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will New York win 5+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will New York win 5+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will New York win 5+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing July 7, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with the Yes price surging 24 percentage points over seven days (2¢ to 55¢), suggesting a significant catalyst or shift in New York's perceived playoff prospects.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 0/50¢·Spread 50¢·Vol $35·OI $1,473.19·Closes Jul 7, 2026·73d remaining

KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-5

7-day price26 snapshots · 21 regime

64¢50¢ current

Apr 181¢Apr 25

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with the Yes price surging 24 percentage points over seven days (2¢ to 55¢), suggesting a significant catalyst or shift in New York's perceived playoff prospects. The 69¢ current price implies a 69% win probability, yet the implied yield on the No side reaches 564.4%, indicating substantial underpricing of the downside scenario relative to the Yes side's 377.8% yield. With only $142.44 in both volume and open interest across 79 days to expiry, liquidity is critically thin, making the wide 14¢ spread and extreme yield figures potentially unreliable for serious position-sizing.

Resolution rules

If New York has at least 5 playoff wins in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.8%

IY (No) 499.8%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 69596%

VR 9.39

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	499.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	69596%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.39	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/25/2026, 4:02:17 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 4:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →