Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 8, 2026. 14 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 167.6% and 41136.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	167.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	41136.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	40260%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	541%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points?

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