Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market is pricing Baltimore's likelihood of landing 5+ primetime games at 86%, but the extreme illiquidity ($0 in 24h volume, only $10 open interest) and wide 12¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market is pricing Baltimore's likelihood of landing 5+ primetime games at 86%, but the extreme illiquidity ($0 in 24h volume, only $10 open interest) and wide 12¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true consensus. The asymmetric yield profile—433.9% on the No side versus 38.7% on the Yes side—indicates severe mispricing, with the No contract offering outsized compensation relative to its 14% implied probability, a classic sign of thin market dysfunction. With 282 days to expiry and a modest 2¢ price rise over the past week, this contract appears to be a ghost market awaiting either liquidity injection or resolution.
Resolution rules
If Baltimore plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-BAL yes 100