Pro Football

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Chicago Bears will receive at least 5 primetime NFL games during the 2026-2027 season. The 96-97% concentration suggests high confidence in this outcome, likely driven by Chicago's large media market and recent roster investments. Primetime game allocations depend on several factors: the Bears' expected competitiveness based on offseason moves, NFL scheduling preferences for marquee matchups, and conference/divisional balance requirements. The main driver of change would be significant trades, injuries to key players, or unexpected roster composition shifts before final schedules are announced. NFL typically releases its full schedule in May; any material changes to team strength between now and that announcement could shift market pricing. Currently, minimal trading volume suggests consensus on this outcome rather than active disagreement.

• ›Chicago is the third-largest U.S. media market, historically favoring primetime allocations regardless of team performance
• ›Market pricing at 96-97% indicates near-certainty; resolution depends on NFL's schedule announcement and final game allocation to the Bears
• ›Competing contracts for Baltimore (20¢) and other teams show Chicago is heavily favored over alternatives but not absolutely guaranteed
• ›Zero trading volume across contracts suggests limited new information flow; major roster news (trades, injuries) could shift expectations materially
• ›Primetime game counts typically range 4-7 per team; reaching the 5+ threshold is common for mid-to-large-market franchises but not automatic

What moved the line

• Sep 17Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Denver↓20pp25→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: New England↓19pp23→4¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo↑17pp60→77¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Pittsburgh↓16pp19→3¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Teams with 5+ Primetime Games: Buffalo↓16pp76→60¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds