Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This illiquid micro-market on Chicago's primetime game allocation shows a sharp 7-day decline from 62¢ to 58¢, now trading at 72¢ with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting recent price recovery on minimal activity.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Chicago's primetime game allocation shows a sharp 7-day decline from 62¢ to 58¢, now trading at 72¢ with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting recent price recovery on minimal activity. The 14¢ spread and asymmetric yields (93.8% Yes vs. 179.0% No) indicate significant uncertainty despite the 72% implied probability, with the No side offering substantially higher risk-adjusted returns. With 282 days until expiry and low cliff risk, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, making it vulnerable to sharp moves on any Chicago scheduling announcements.
Resolution rules
If Chicago plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-CHI yes 100