Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market is pricing Kansas City's primetime game allocation at an extremely high 84% probability with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($744 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price.
Analysis
This market is pricing Kansas City's primetime game allocation at an extremely high 84% probability with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($744 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price. The asymmetric implied yields—14.4% for Yes versus 1166.4% for No—reflect the lopsided odds, though the No side's astronomical yield is largely theoretical given the low probability and illiquid market. With 282 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a "set and forget" market where the price has remained flat at 90¢ for a week, indicating either strong consensus that the Chiefs will receive primetime slots or insufficient market participation to challenge the pricing.
Resolution rules
If Kansas City plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-KC yes 100