What is the current probability for "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 23, 2027. 275 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2079.7% and 8.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Pro Football: Teams with 5+ Primetime Games. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 11¢ bid-ask spread and an astronomical 2050.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting virtually no trading activity and likely stale pricing.

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12¢mid

Bid/Ask 6/17¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jan 23, 2027·275d remaining

KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-NO

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

6¢6¢ current

Apr 163¢Apr 19

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 11¢ bid-ask spread and an astronomical 2050.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting virtually no trading activity and likely stale pricing. The Yes price of 0¢ appears disconnected from fundamental probability given the New Orleans Saints' historical primetime game frequency, and the sharp 7-day rally from 3¢ to 6¢ indicates recent price discovery in a thin market. With 279 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, this contract remains highly speculative and illiquid for position-taking.

Resolution rules

If New Orleans plays in at least 5 primetime games during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2079.7%

IY (No) 8.5%

Adj IY 1040%

CRI 16

Overround 11.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2079.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1040%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	11.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:11:21 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLPRIMETIME-27-NO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →