Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction typical of dead or mispriced contracts: zero volume and open interest with a 55¢ spread despite a 0¢ current price, generating a nonsensical 19,787% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction typical of dead or mispriced contracts: zero volume and open interest with a 55¢ spread despite a 0¢ current price, generating a nonsensical 19,787% implied yield on the Yes side. The contract's 21-day expiration window and recent price movement from 4¢ to 8¢ suggest minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability discovery, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates significant resolution uncertainty or data quality issues. This appears to be a stale or abandoned market that should be approached with extreme caution given the complete absence of liquidity and the disconnect between the quoted price and the theoretical payoff structure.
Resolution rules
If Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals in the Tampa Bay at Montreal professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR26TBMTL-TB1 yes 100