Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-3?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The 45¢ price implies a competitive but uncertain race, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 241% annualized yield despite modest $542.72 daily volume and tight $8,218.86 open interest—suggesting limited liquidity for a market with 201 days to expiry.
Analysis
The 45¢ price implies a competitive but uncertain race, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 241% annualized yield despite modest $542.72 daily volume and tight $8,218.86 open interest—suggesting limited liquidity for a market with 201 days to expiry. The extreme 602% realized volatility and 3.39 vol ratio indicate significant price swings (the contract moved 6¢ over seven days), pointing to sparse trading and potential information sensitivity around PA-3 Democratic primary developments. The neutral regime and low 0.8/h info arrival rate suggest the market is currently digesting available information, but the high implied yield on the Yes side warrants caution about illiquidity risk relative to potential nomination catalysts.
Resolution rules
If Sharif Street wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-3 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPA3D-26-SSTR yes 100