The Sheep Detectives Rotten Tomatoes score?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that The Sheep Detectives Rotten Tomatoes score?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. The Sheep Detectives market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 3120% annualized return versus just 905% for Yes, suggesting sophisticated traders are heavily discounting the probability of an 80+ Rotten Tomatoes score despite the 65¢ price.
Analysis
The Sheep Detectives market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the No side offering 3120% annualized return versus just 905% for Yes, suggesting sophisticated traders are heavily discounting the probability of an 80+ Rotten Tomatoes score despite the 65¢ price. With only $868.99 open interest and a 27¢ spread across 22 days to expiry, liquidity is dangerously thin—the realized volatility of 2195% and info arrival rate of 0.4 events per hour indicate this is a highly speculative micro-cap market where small order flow could cause significant price swings. The 9¢ price appreciation over seven days combined with the neutral regime suggests the market is gradually pricing in skepticism about the film achieving critical acclaim, making this a contrarian bet for those bullish on the project.
Resolution rules
If The Sheep Detectives has a Tomatometer score of above 80 on May 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRT-SHEE-80 yes 100