How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 12
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 120
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 14
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL-14
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL-12
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 13
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUL-13
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 210
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-210
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 180
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 150
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-150
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 190
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 200
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200
Analysis
The market prices a 94% probability that SpaceX will complete more than 12 launches in 2026, with much lower probabilities assigned to 13+ or 14+ launches. This assessment reflects expectations about SpaceX's operational capacity, launch cadence, and mission manifest for the year. Key drivers include SpaceX's current launch infrastructure, regulatory approval timelines, and customer demand. The probability could shift based on actual launch performance through the year—successful execution would reinforce confidence, while delays or technical issues would lower expectations. Uncertainty will gradually resolve as 2026 progresses and launch attempts occur, with the final outcome determined by SpaceX's actual launch count on December 31, 2026.
- ›SpaceX's 2025 launch cadence and achieved flight rate provides a baseline for 2026 forecasting
- ›Regulatory throughput from the FAA, particularly licensing decisions for Starship, directly enables or constrains launch capacity
- ›Customer manifest backlog and commercial demand are needed to fill available launch windows
- ›Technical setbacks or grounding events would materially lower the probability of meeting threshold targets
- ›The probability gap between 12+ (94%), 13+ (50%), and 14+ (13%) suggests consensus expectations cluster around 13 launches but carry substantial variance
What moved the line
- Jul 17Above 13↓19pp81→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Above 13↑12pp61→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Above 13↑9pp72→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Above 13↑9pp62→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above 13↓9pp70→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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