How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 120
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 8
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
116 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 11
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26SEP-11
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 12
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26SEP-12
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 9
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26SEP-9
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 10
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26SEP-10
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 8
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26SEP-8
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 200
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 150
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-150
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 180
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 190
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190
Analysis
Markets are pricing an extremely high probability (97%) that SpaceX will conduct more than 11 launches in August 2026. This reflects strong confidence in the company's launch cadence based on historical performance and announced mission schedules. The high pricing suggests traders expect SpaceX to maintain its recent operational tempo during this specific month. The probability could decline if SpaceX experiences delays, supply-chain disruptions, or regulatory holds on planned missions. Resolution arrives on August 31, 2026, when the actual launch count for the month becomes definitive. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 11-14 launch range (97% down to 20%) indicates uncertainty about the upper bound of monthly capacity, even as base-case achievement appears nearly certain.
- ›SpaceX's documented launch cadence in 2025-2026 and manifested August mission schedule
- ›Availability of flight-ready Falcon 9 boosters and payload readiness for August missions
- ›Regulatory approval status and any potential FAA or international licensing delays
- ›Weather and technical scrub patterns typical for the launch window in August
- ›Full-year 2026 pace (97% confidence in exceeding 140 total launches) as context for monthly feasibility
What moved the line
- Sep 1Above 10↓16pp66→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 31Above 11↓10pp41→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Above 8↑10pp83→93¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above 150↓10pp33→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Above 10↓9pp50→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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