Will Donald Trump be Time Person of the Year in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Donald Trump be Time Person of the Year in 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing Trump at just 25% odds despite his prominent political position, suggesting significant skepticism about Time's selection criteria or Trump's likelihood of winning the award.
Analysis
The market is pricing Trump at just 25% odds despite his prominent political position, suggesting significant skepticism about Time's selection criteria or Trump's likelihood of winning the award. The 445.9% implied yield on Yes contracts indicates substantial underpricing relative to the binary outcome, though this is tempered by thin liquidity at $19,967.71 open interest and minimal 24-hour volume of $169.71. With 259 days to resolution and a modest 5¢ spread, the market has ample time for repricing, though the recent downward drift from 26¢ to 24¢ suggests weakening conviction in a Trump selection.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTIME-26-DT yes 100