Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 34¢ has surged 70% over seven days (from 20¢ to 34¢), suggesting significant recent information arrival at 1.9 updates per hour, though the 5¢ spread and modest $10.5K daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The extreme 1259% realized volatility and 7.07 vol ratio are notable red flags for a market with 201 days to expiry, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about CO-03's competitive dynamics or potential data quality issues. The asymmetric implied yields (369% for Yes vs. 89.5% for No) reflect the sharp recent move favoring Republicans, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market isn't pricing in imminent resolution catalysts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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