What is the current probability for "Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 247 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2318.6% and 9.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,852 in open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite a wide 2¢ spread.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $3,902·Closes Jan 1, 2027·247d remaining

KXTIME-26-JP

Analysis

12d ago

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,852 in open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite a wide 2¢ spread. The extreme 2206.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is pricing in either very low conviction or thin positioning rather than genuine probability assessment. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this contract appears to be a low-activity niche bet where Powell's chances of winning Time's award are likely mispriced due to lack of trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Jerome Powell is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2318.6%

IY (No) 9.4%

Adj IY 1159%

CRI 16

Overround 0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2318.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1159%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 2:01:19 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 1:53:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTIME-26-JP yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →