Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year in 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing Altman at just 7% despite a substantial 1,871% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either extreme skepticism about his chances or severe illiquidity constraints—the zero 24-hour volume and $6,111 open interest support the latter interpretation.
Analysis
This market is pricing Altman at just 7% despite a substantial 1,871% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either extreme skepticism about his chances or severe illiquidity constraints—the zero 24-hour volume and $6,111 open interest support the latter interpretation. The wide 2¢ spread and neutral regime indicate low conviction among traders, while the 259-day timeframe to resolution provides ample opportunity for repricing if major AI developments shift public perception. The 13 cliff risk index warrants caution, as Time's selection process could create sudden volatility closer to year-end announcement.
Resolution rules
If Sam Altman is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTIME-26-SA yes 100