What is the current probability for "Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 247 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2318.6% and 9.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $273 in open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $343.46·Closes Jan 1, 2027·247d remaining

KXTIME-26-SHE

7-day price10 snapshots · 11 regime

10¢6¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 25

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $273 in open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable. The implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 2206.3%, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding massive compensation for the binary risk of a relatively unlikely outcome. The price has declined sharply from 9¢ to 6¢ over seven days, indicating weakening conviction among holders, though with such thin liquidity this movement may reflect minimal actual trading rather than genuine sentiment shift.

Resolution rules

If Shehbaz Sharif is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2318.6%

IY (No) 9.4%

Adj IY 1159%

CRI 16

Overround 0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2318.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1159%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 2:01:39 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 1:53:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTIME-26-SHE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →