Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry typical of long-shot celebrity prediction contracts, with a 688% implied yield on Yes positions reflecting the 19¢ price and substantial time value through January 2027.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry typical of long-shot celebrity prediction contracts, with a 688% implied yield on Yes positions reflecting the 19¢ price and substantial time value through January 2027. The 717% realized volatility and 2.42 vol ratio indicate sharp price swings despite minimal liquidity ($398.93 daily volume), suggesting the market is highly sensitive to news about Mamdani's political prominence or Time's editorial decisions. The recent 4-cent rally from 13¢ to 17¢ over seven days warrants monitoring, though with only $19,151 open interest and a 5 cliff risk index, this remains a speculative niche contract vulnerable to sudden repricing on major political developments.
Resolution rules
If Zohran Mamdani is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTIME-26-ZOH yes 100