Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The Yes side offers an extreme 2059% implied yield on a 30¢ price with 76 days to expiration, suggesting either severe underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is discounting.
Analysis
The Yes side offers an extreme 2059% implied yield on a 30¢ price with 76 days to expiration, suggesting either severe underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is discounting. The 4¢ spread and minimal $47.79 daily volume indicate dangerously low liquidity for a binary with such asymmetric payoffs, making this a speculative micro-market vulnerable to slippage. The realized volatility of 3758% and recent price surge from 13¢ to 19¢ over seven days signal high uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 0.9/h info arrival rate suggest the market hasn't yet priced in a major catalyst that would trigger the phrase.
Resolution rules
If Biden Crime Family, or a plural or possessive form of Biden Crime Family, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-BIDE yes 100