Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 40% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Piggy
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Whack Job / Wack Job
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "Piggy" before Oct 1, 2026?: Piggy
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-PIGG
Will Trump say "Whack Job / Wack Job" before Oct 1, 2026?: Whack Job / Wack Job
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-WHAC
Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Oct 1, 2026?: Crazy Bernie
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-CRAZ
Will Trump say "Numbskull" before Oct 1, 2026?: Numbskull
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-NUMB
Will Trump say "Tampon Tim" before Oct 1, 2026?: Tampon Tim
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-TAMP
Will Trump say "Fat Slob" before Oct 1, 2026?: Fat Slob
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-FAT
Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Oct 1, 2026?: Biden Crime Family
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-BIDE
Will Trump say "Trainwreck" before Oct 1, 2026?: Trainwreck
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-TRAI
Will Trump say "Low Energy" before Oct 1, 2026?: Low Energy
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-LOWE
Will Trump say "Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus" before Oct 1, 2026?: Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-SLOP
Will Trump say "Little Communist" before Oct 1, 2026?: Little Communist
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-LITT
Will Trump say "Rocket Man" before Oct 1, 2026?: Rocket Man
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01-ROCK
Analysis
This market estimates a 78% probability that Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public remarks before October 1, 2026. The high probability reflects Trump's documented history of creating and repeating nicknames for political figures, combined with ongoing tensions between him and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The probability could shift based on whether Trump continues active campaigning and public appearances in the coming months, or if a reconciliation occurs between the two figures. The main catalyst affecting this outcome will be the frequency and nature of Trump's public communications through early October, including campaign rallies, media appearances, and social media posts. Related nickname contracts show traders also expect phrases like 'Slopadopolous' (45¢) and 'Piggy' (41¢), suggesting broader confidence in Trump's continued nickname usage. Lower-probability phrases like 'Comrade Kamala' and 'Biden Crime Family' indicate more selective expectations about specific rhetoric.
- ›Trump's historical pattern of creating and repeating derogatory nicknames for political opponents across multiple years and communication channels
- ›Current political distance between Trump and Rep. Greene, which could either persist or narrow, materially affecting nickname usage frequency
- ›Volume of Trump's public appearances and media exposure between now and October 1, 2026, as more speaking events increase probability of specific phrases being spoken
- ›Competing nickname contracts priced at 41-45¢ suggest traders expect other phrases with similar or greater likelihood, creating relative valuation context
- ›No scheduled triggering event or debate guaranteed before October 1 makes the outcome dependent on unpredictable communication choices across a 10-week window
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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