Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 78% probability that Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public remarks before October 1, 2026. The high probability reflects Trump's documented history of creating and repeating nicknames for political figures, combined with ongoing tensions between him and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The probability could shift based on whether Trump continues active campaigning and public appearances in the coming months, or if a reconciliation occurs between the two figures. The main catalyst affecting this outcome will be the frequency and nature of Trump's public communications through early October, including campaign rallies, media appearances, and social media posts. Related nickname contracts show traders also expect phrases like 'Slopadopolous' (45¢) and 'Piggy' (41¢), suggesting broader confidence in Trump's continued nickname usage. Lower-probability phrases like 'Comrade Kamala' and 'Biden Crime Family' indicate more selective expectations about specific rhetoric.

• ›Trump's historical pattern of creating and repeating derogatory nicknames for political opponents across multiple years and communication channels
• ›Current political distance between Trump and Rep. Greene, which could either persist or narrow, materially affecting nickname usage frequency
• ›Volume of Trump's public appearances and media exposure between now and October 1, 2026, as more speaking events increase probability of specific phrases being spoken
• ›Competing nickname contracts priced at 41-45¢ suggest traders expect other phrases with similar or greater likelihood, creating relative valuation context
• ›No scheduled triggering event or debate guaranteed before October 1 makes the outcome dependent on unpredictable communication choices across a 10-week window

What moved the line

• Aug 2Trainwreck↑14pp40→54¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Crooked Hillary↓7pp63→56¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Marjorie Traitor Greene↓6pp24→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3Crooked Hillary↑6pp66→72¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Piggy↓6pp33→27¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds