Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 16% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Biden Crime Family
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Low Energy
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Jul 1, 2026?: Biden Crime Family
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-BIDE
Will Trump say "Tampon Tim" before Jul 1, 2026?: Tampon Tim
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-TAMP
Will Trump say "Low Energy" before Jul 1, 2026?: Low Energy
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-LOWE
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?: Comrade Kamala
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-COMR
Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026?: Marjorie Traitor Greene
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-MARJ
Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Jul 1, 2026?: Crazy Bernie
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-CRAZ
Will Trump say "Little Communist" before Jul 1, 2026?: Little Communist
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-LITT
Will Trump say "Rocket Man" before Jul 1, 2026?: Rocket Man
KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-ROCK
Analysis
This contract estimates a 55% chance that former President Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public before July 1, 2026. The probability reflects Trump's documented history of assigning insulting nicknames to political figures, balanced against the specificity required—he would need to use this particular phrase rather than other possible variants or criticisms of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The timeline is approximately two months. The main drivers are Trump's communication frequency and willingness to escalate rhetoric toward Greene, potentially influenced by political developments or statements from her that provoke a response. Related contracts show Trump frequently uses names and phrases in public appearances, though predicting exact wording remains inherently uncertain. The resolution depends on documented public statements, speeches, social media posts, or media appearances through the deadline.
- ›Trump's baseline frequency of public statements and nickname usage over comparable two-month periods in 2025-2026
- ›Prior instances of Trump using similar 'traitor' language toward specific political figures and whether Greene has been a recent target
- ›Whether major political events between now and July 1 (legislative votes, hearings, or statements from Greene) would prompt Trump to respond
- ›The definition of 'say' as applied to various media formats—whether it covers prepared statements, spontaneous remarks, Truth Social posts, or only direct speech
- ›Historical accuracy of prediction markets on Trump's specific phrase usage versus broader behavioral patterns
What moved the line
- Jun 18Low Energy↓11pp23→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Biden Crime Family↓7pp16→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Low Energy↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Rocket Man↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Biden Crime Family↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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