Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the quoted prices unreliable—the 8¢ spread and astronomical "No" yield of 10,755% reflect a market with no real trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the quoted prices unreliable—the 8¢ spread and astronomical "No" yield of 10,755% reflect a market with no real trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment. The 0¢ "Yes" price implies near-zero probability that Australian unemployment exceeds 3.8% in April 2026, which seems optimistic given Australia's historical unemployment volatility and the current economic environment. With only 34 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market is approaching resolution but lacks the liquidity needed for confident position-taking.
Resolution rules
If the Australia unemployment rate is above 3.8% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-3.8 yes 100