Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero trading activity and a massive 8¢ spread despite only 34 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential abandonment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero trading activity and a massive 8¢ spread despite only 34 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential abandonment. The implied probabilities are nonsensical—0% for Yes paired with a 9667.5% yield on No indicates the market has effectively frozen with no consensus pricing. The cliff risk index of 9 (maximum) combined with neutral regime conditions warns of potential resolution disputes or data availability issues around the April 2026 Australian unemployment figure.
Resolution rules
If the Australia unemployment rate is above 3.9% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-3.9 yes 100