Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2604% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 2604% implied yield on the Yes side. The 11¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and with only 34 days to expiry, any actual trading could cause severe slippage. The neutral regime and low cliff risk score suggest stable conditions, but the complete absence of market activity indicates this contract may be too niche or uncertain for meaningful price discovery on the unemployment threshold of 4.3%.
Resolution rules
If the Australia unemployment rate is above 4.3% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-4.3 yes 100