China unemployment rate in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that China unemployment rate in April 2026?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market shows zero trading activity with $0 in both volume and open interest, indicating complete illiquidity despite a 98-cent spread—suggesting no meaningful price discovery has occurred.
Analysis
This market shows zero trading activity with $0 in both volume and open interest, indicating complete illiquidity despite a 98-cent spread—suggesting no meaningful price discovery has occurred. The 0% implied probability at 0¢ appears to reflect a default or inactive listing rather than genuine market sentiment that China's unemployment will remain at or below 5.1% in April 2026. With over a year until the May 2026 expiration, this market needs significant participation to become tradeable, as the current conditions make it unsuitable for serious prediction or hedging.
Resolution rules
If the China unemployment rate is above 5.1% for April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUE-CHN26APR-5.1 yes 100