Will Jeff Yan be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Jeff Yan be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,524 open interest and a 5¢ spread, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,524 open interest and a 5¢ spread, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The 194.1% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to the 101.8% on the No side, indicating the market may be underpricing the likelihood of this appearance given the ~2-year timeframe and UpOnly's regular guest rotation. With 260 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a relatively straightforward binary outcome, though the near-50¢ price and neutral regime suggest genuine uncertainty about whether Jeff Yan will secure a podcast slot.
Also on polymarket at 34¢(Δ +16¢)
Resolution rules
If Jeff Yan is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUPONLY-01-JEFF yes 100