Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.17M open interest and a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting the quoted 33¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.17M open interest and a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting the quoted 33¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 286% implied yield on the "Yes" side is exceptionally high relative to the 69.4% on "No," indicating either significant underpricing of token launch probability or substantial risk premium demanded by holders—compounded by the 715% realized volatility suggesting past price swings have been violent. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a low-information market where the extreme yield differential warrants caution about relying on the current price as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daylight (https://x.com/daylightenergy) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Daylight, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc93089b55ece64b2e4f6a8eeb9a21e772a619b89571e77d6d3d2a057b9f7e61e yes 100