Will Martin Shkreli be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Martin Shkreli be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 9-cent price implies an extremely low 9% probability of Shkreli appearing on UpOnly before year-end 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 1,421% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe mispricing or market skepticism about his availability (he's currently incarcerated).
Analysis
The 9-cent price implies an extremely low 9% probability of Shkreli appearing on UpOnly before year-end 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 1,421% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe mispricing or market skepticism about his availability (he's currently incarcerated). With only $251 in open interest and $19 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin, making the quoted spread of 6 cents potentially unreliable for actual execution. The 260-day timeframe and neutral regime score provide reasonable time for resolution, but the cliff risk index of 10 indicates elevated uncertainty around the binary outcome.
Also on polymarket at 25¢(Δ -16¢)
Resolution rules
If Martin Shkreli is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUPONLY-01-MART yes 100