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Delcy Rodríguez · KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01

Delcy Rodríguez is priced at 90¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01.

Price history

90¢ current

+13¢
75¢
May 14, 2026May 31, 2026

Contract brief

If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Delcy Rodríguez

Rank

#1 of 8

Leader

Delcy Rodríguez 90¢

Range

1¢-90¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD

Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

90¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

90¢

Ask

94¢

Spread

Reported volume

$15K

Family rank

#1 of 8

8 outcomes · KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

90 / 94¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
90¢143
89¢500
50¢884
43¢55
26¢127
AskSize
94¢20
95¢500
99¢937

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Identifier

KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD

SF Signal
SF Index
789.45
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on polymarket at 91¢, -1¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

19.5%
1578.9%
Adj IY
789%
9

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.