Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 9%, Polymarket at 8%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
11 contracts
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9.7M
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
118 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above” vs “Will Bitcoin be above $2”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A110
Cluster 2
Will Bitcoin be above $2
Cluster 3
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 202
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2027?
KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG-27JAN01
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2028?
KXTREASBUYBTC-26AUG-28JAN01
Cluster 4
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
0xbec8b2…2240
What moved the line
- Sep 2Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp29→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↓6pp19→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 1, 2028?↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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