Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
0xbec8b2…2240
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 77% · 1d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 9d
- Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 3% · 23d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 17% · 23d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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Bitcoin price markets are highly active, with over 90,000 volume in the $64,000 bucket. The IBIT ETF is up 1.85%, and monthly trimmed mean contracts show bullish bias. Key levels to watch.
Bitcoin Price Markets Clustering Around $62K–$64K for July 17
Bitcoin price prediction markets for July 17 show a cluster around $62,000–$64,000. The IBIT ETF is up 3.9% today. Monthly trimmed mean above $67,500 is at 49¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.