Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD
Cluster 2
Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-MMAC
Cluster 3
Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-NMAD
Cluster 4
Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-EGON
Cluster 5
Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-JROD
Cluster 6
Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DCAB
Cluster 7
Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-GLOP
Cluster 8
Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-VLOP
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 52% · 1d
- Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065last 4% · 1d
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___last 55% · 3d
- Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k firstlast 95% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.