2 source contracts·Kalshi 2·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 2, 2027 · 213d

Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 2 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

47%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

47%

2 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

2 contracts

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

213 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez90¢$0 Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: María Corina Machado4¢$0

30-day trend

Aggregate of 2 contracts · 11d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 2 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez

KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD

90¢−1pp$0K→

Cluster 2

Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?: María Corina Machado

KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-MMAC

4¢−2pp$0K→

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (47% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

In general

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.

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