Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Delcy Rodríguez will serve as Venezuela's de facto head of state through the end of 2026. Rodríguez, currently Vice President under Nicolás Maduro, could assume this role if Maduro were removed, incapacitated, or if power dynamics within the regime shift substantially. The 47% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about Venezuelan political stability and succession dynamics. Key drivers include the stability of Maduro's grip on power, international pressure and sanctions, internal regime cohesion, and opposition movement momentum. The primary near-term catalyst is whether opposition forces, particularly María Corina Machado's faction, can gain sufficient traction to challenge regime control, though the currently low probability assigned to Machado's assumption of power (4%) suggests markets view this as unlikely. Broader factors include economic conditions, military loyalty, and potential negotiations or political transitions over the coming months.

• ›Maduro's control of military and security forces remains intact or erodes significantly
• ›International sanctions and economic deterioration reach critical thresholds affecting regime stability
• ›Internal Bolivarian Revolution factions maintain unified control or fracture along power-succession lines
• ›Opposition coordination and popular mobilization capability relative to security force capacity for repression
• ›Regional diplomatic intervention or foreign pressure creating negotiated transition scenarios by year-end

What moved the line

• Aug 8Delcy Rodríguez↓4pp93→89¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3Delcy Rodríguez↑3pp90→93¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds