Who will win the WA-4 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Who will win the WA-4 primary?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This illiquid market has experienced significant downward price movement over seven days, declining from 72¢ to 64¢, suggesting shifting sentiment away from the Yes outcome despite the 65% current probability.
Analysis
This illiquid market has experienced significant downward price movement over seven days, declining from 72¢ to 64¢, suggesting shifting sentiment away from the Yes outcome despite the 65% current probability. The extremely low 24-hour volume of $0 combined with minimal open interest of $93 indicates virtually no active trading, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading as a liquidity indicator. The asymmetric implied yields—102.3% for Yes versus 323.4% for No—reflect the market's illiquidity and suggest the No side offers substantially higher risk-adjusted returns, though with 201 days to expiry, there remains considerable time for price discovery and participation.
Resolution rules
If John Duresky advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWA4PRIMARY-26-JDUR yes 100