Who will win the WA-4 primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2027
390 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the WA-4 primary
Who will win the WA-4 primary?: Wesley Meier
KXWA4PRIMARY-26-WMEI
Analysis
The 74% probability indicates that one candidate is favored to win Washington's 4th congressional district primary, with a substantial but not overwhelming lead over alternatives. This level reflects current polling, fundraising, and endorsement dynamics that markets assess as favoring the front-runner. The probability could shift based on candidate debate performance, late-breaking endorsements, or changes in voter sentiment captured by new polling. The primary election itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively. Until then, the position sits well above even odds but leaves meaningful room for challengers, suggesting the race remains competitive despite the leader's current advantage.
- ›The 74% price reflects a leader with significant but non-dominant support, leaving approximately 26% combined probability for all alternative candidates
- ›Market volume and price consistency across contracts can indicate confidence level—higher volume generally suggests stronger conviction among traders
- ›Any significant polling release or endorsement shift in the weeks before the primary could move prices materially in either direction
- ›Early voting patterns and turnout models, once available, provide empirical data that either reinforce or challenge current market positioning
- ›The specific primary date determines resolution timing and represents the hard deadline when this uncertainty converts to a known outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.