SimpleFunctions

Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026

Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 400k is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 54¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01.

Price history

54¢ current

+52¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 14, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the total number of gonorrhea cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 400000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 400k

Rank

#6 of 9

Leader

Above 285000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 285k 83¢

Range

18¢-83¢

Family volume

$268

Identifier

KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A400000

May 26, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

54¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

54¢

Ask

59¢

Spread

24h volume

$2

Family rank

#6 of 9

9 outcomes · KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$268

Orderbook snapshot

54 / 59¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
54¢67
53¢500
47¢113
26¢38
25¢57
AskSize
59¢5
60¢500
66¢101
82¢231
83¢896

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the total number of gonorrhea cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 400000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXGONORRHEACOUNT-27JAN01-A400000

SF Signal
SF Index
97.49
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

141.5%

IY (No)

195.0%

Adj IY

97%

CRI

1

Overround

4.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

141.5%
195.0%
Adj IY
97%
1
Overround
4.0%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.