SimpleFunctions
9 source contracts·Kalshi 9·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 222d

Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 62% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

62%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

62%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$506

9 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

222 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 70% (11 days, 11 points)Aggregate: 70% on 2026-05-24
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 11d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

above 285000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 285k

1 contract$501

Cluster 2

above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 450k

1 contract$5

Cluster 3

above 300000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 300k

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

above 325000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 325k

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 350k

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

above 375000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 375k

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 400k

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

above 425000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 425k

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the united states during 2026: above 500k

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 17Above 425k28pp4416¢ · Kalshi
  • May 18Above 425k25pp1641¢ · Kalshi
  • May 17Above 300k20pp7959¢ · Kalshi
  • May 18Above 400k20pp3050¢ · Kalshi
  • May 17Above 375k19pp5839¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.