Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction reflects a 66% probability that confirmed gonorrhea cases in the United States will exceed 350,000 during 2026. The assessment is based on recent epidemiological trends and current case trajectories reported by health surveillance systems. Key drivers include whether antimicrobial resistance continues to limit treatment effectiveness, changes in sexual health screening rates and patterns, and public health intervention capacity. The CDC will publish preliminary 2026 gonorrhea case counts in mid-2027, which will definitively resolve this forecast. Current market pricing suggests modest uncertainty above the 350,000 threshold, with steeper declines in probability at higher case levels (38% at 450,000), indicating traders view near-term case acceleration as moderately likely but extreme growth as less probable.

• ›CDC surveillance data from H1 2026 shows whether case reporting is tracking above, below, or at prior-year rates
• ›Antibiotic resistance patterns reported by CDC laboratories determine treatment failure rates and potential case increases
• ›Changes in STI screening volume at clinics and testing facilities affect case detection independent of infection prevalence
• ›State-level funding for sexual health programs and contact tracing capacity influences case identification and management
• ›Behavioral factors including condom use rates and sexual partner network characteristics shift transmission dynamics year-to-year

What moved the line

• Sep 3Above 450k↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 4Above 450k↑17pp28→45¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 2Above 400k↑4pp77→81¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 2Above 500k↓4pp31→27¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 4Above 500k↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds