AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

The market has surged 52% over seven days to 47¢, suggesting growing conviction that a U.S. AI data center moratorium could pass within 258 days, though zero 24-hour volume and a 12¢ spread indicate thin liquidity that may exaggerate price movements. The 159.5% annualized yield on the Yes side reflects the market's assessment of meaningful tail risk, yet the neutral regime score (0.409) and low cliff risk suggest this is pricing genuine uncertainty rather than panic. With only $3.7M open interest, this market lacks the depth to confidently signal whether the recent rally represents informed positioning or speculative momentum.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify. The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade