What is the current probability for "Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 72¢ (72% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 23.3% and 154.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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72¢

Bid/Ask 69/75¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $2,635.817·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x2ed8f51819645d2cdb20eed1e57abd194d53cd307bf71efd07ec9359957230b9

7-day price975 snapshots · 9 regime

81¢72¢ current

Apr 2341¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 23.3%

IY (No) 154.0%

Adj IY 77%

CRI 3

Overround 2.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	23.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	154.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	77%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 2:31:26 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 2:23:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x2ed8f51819645d2cdb20eed1e57abd194d53cd307bf71efd07ec9359957230b9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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